How did NPAs overtake Volusia Democrats in voter registration?

With Monday’s deadline to register to vote in the Nov. 5 election in Florida, political parties have been working hard to reel in eligible citizens.
For the minority parties in some Florida counties — be they Democrat or Republican — registration has become a battle they’re losing not just to the dominant parties, but also to the no-party affiliated (NPA) category. As of Friday, Volusia County had become one, as Democrats had fewer registered voters, 130,558, than the number of NPAs, 130,575.
While that 17-voter difference can easily change with voter registration efforts over the weekend, it was still a bit alarming, if not surprising, to Jewel Dickson, chair of the Volusia County Democrats.
“There are more people — and a lot of our young people — are signing up to be no-party affiliates, and we know that,” Dickson said. “And what we’re trying to do is not change them but provide them with information.”
So while Republicans and Democrats are handing out slate cards to their own members, they’re also targeting NPAs.
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Dickson said Democrats are able to identify NPAs who are more likely to vote for candidates such as Kamala Harris for president and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for U.S. Senate.
“If you are an NPA and live in a house with a Democrat, you are more likely to vote Democratic,” she said.
Likewise, NPAs who live in neighborhoods that tend to lean Democratic are more likely to vote blue, Dickson said.
Democrats ruled Volusia County until 2017 when Republicans surpassed them in registered voters. Seven years later, that battle is not even close, with the GOP attaining a 50,000-voter advantage in a county of more than 450,000 voters.
In Flagler County, where Republicans make up just under half of the county’s 96,000 voters, Democrats maintain a lead over NPAs by more than 2,000 voters.
When the books closed last July for the 2024 primary election, 18 of Florida’s 67 counties had more registered NPAs than one of the two major parties.
There are Republican-dominated counties scattered across Florida where this has occurred. In the northwest Panhandle, there’s Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton and Bay counties. In Northeast Florida, Nassau and Clay counties have more NPAs than Democrats, as do — traveling down the Gulf Coast — Citrus, Pasco, Charlotte, Lee and Collier, as well as Martin on the Atlantic coast.
Meanwhile, four blue counties have more NPAs than Republicans: Miami-Dade, Broward, Orange and Osceola.
Lonna Atkeson, a political science scholar and director of the LeRoy Collins Institute at Florida State University, said that the rise of NPAs is due, in part, to voter registration having been made easier and more convenient — “a good thing.”
However, NPAs are less likely to actually vote in elections.
Atkeson offered a couple of thoughts. She’s noticed, by watching voter files, that counties that lean heavily in one direction may also have more NPAs.
Take, for example, Volusia County, where all the state legislators and County Council members are Republican.
“Maybe you’re really a Democrat, but you don’t want to give that away in the voter file because you’re around all these people who aren’t Democrats,” she said. “Or vice-versa. If you have a county that has a lot of one-party rule, … you sort of see a rise in NPAs because I think that hides people’s choices.”
This might involve people who have business before a Republican-controlled body, or a county or city employee who might not want to be seen out of step.
Another factor in the rise of NPAs: Generational differences. Young people tend to eschew political parties.
“Their identities might not be clear, especially for families of immigrants,” Atkeson said. “We have a lot of those in the state.”
Much of the in-migration to Florida are folks from Democratic-leaning states, such as New York, New Jersey and Illinois, and some have come for political reasons, experts say.
Dickson said she watches the voter file and does not believe a lot of established Democratic voters are changing to NPA. However, she added: “Democrats coming in from other states that change to NPA … a lot of those. Actually, in our gated communities, a lot of people moved in and they were Democrats and they come down here and they switch to NPAs or maybe Republicans because there’s a lot of NPAs and Republicans.”
Dickson said while the trend is not good for Democrats, she is willing to work for NPA votes.
“I’m not upset with people who are NPAs. I respect their views,” she said. “As long as they’re not going into the MAGA party, I’m happy.”